Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Unpredictable

In our society we are used to attempting to predict the future. Most obviously, the weather is predicted practically to the hour, if you care, and with the aid of modern technology usually the short-term (say 24 hours) forecast is reasonably accurate but as far as the say 7 day prognosis well, who really remembers it seven days later? Certainly not the weatherman.

High tech aids, however, aren't of much use for predicting most other events that significantly affect us. Even TNB in his (mostly tongue in cheek) 2011 forecast, published less than three months ago, utterly failed to sense that the following was going to occur before the first quarter of the year was over:
  • The upheaval all across the Middle East and North Africa with a lot yet to be written. Will Gadhaffi go? Will he get asylum anywhere? Will Saudi Arabia be next? What will happen in Iran? If you read or hear any "expert" analysis on what's likely, forget it. No one knows (maybe the Shadow, for those of you old enough to understand).
  • The earthquake, tsunami and resultant nuclear disaster in Japan. Sure the nuclear facility was built on a fault (practically all of Japan is) but to have such a "perfect storm" of events occurring would have surprised and baffled Nostradamus.
  • The firing of Charlie Sheen from his top-rated TV sitcom Two and a Half Men. Charlie has been nothing but unpredictable of course but to witness such public self-destruction could not have been foreseen. And lest you think that his inclusion in this list trivializes it, who has gotten more attention-- Hosni Mubarak, Japanese Prime Minister Kan or that fascinating bad boy?

BTW, in TNB's defense, he did correctly predict Rahm Emanuel's election as Chicago mayor (OK--it was a slam dunk) but is still waiting for the rest of that prophecy to come true. Still no word on when Chicago City Hall will be moved to Manny's Deli but with David Axelrod back in town, still sounds like a good guess.